"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.” -Mahatma Gandhi


Monday, September 27, 2010

Book Review: Survival + (Part III)

This post is part of a series.  Click the links to read Part I and Part II.

Some other little tidbits from the book that have changed the way I view things are as follows:

Cui Bono – to whose benefit? Asking this question repeatedly, in all instances, at all times, is a simple and effective way to find out where the control lies. Are you in control of the situation, or is someone else? Who benefits from the action you are about to take? Have you thought it all the way through? For a further explanation of this concept, I am going to have to advise you to read the book and find out. It is an enlightening experience.

The Pareto Principle – commonly known as the 80-20 rule or the law of the vital few.  It basically states that 80% of results come from 20% of the causes. The 80-20 rule does not hold true for all situations all the time, but it is a general rule of thumb that is observable in the natural order of things. In America we can use it to show how 20% of the population controls 80% of the wealth. The reverse of this is obvious. 80% of the populace controls the other 20% of the wealth. This can be broken down even further. If 80% of results come from 20% of the causes, then 80% of that top 80% of effects comes from 20% of that top 20% of causes. From here we get other ratios that hold true if the starting parameters are chosen correctly. 80% of 80% is 64%; 20% of 20% is 4%, so a 64-4 law and a 51.2-0.8 law should also be observable. Looking at the breakdown of wealth distribution, you will find that all of these laws are observable fact.

Wealth distribution and the money-influence abuse cycle aside, we can use this as a law of positive change. While the elite use money to buy influence, we can have an influence in other ways. My entire life, as a Boy Scout when I was young, as a Marine when I got older, I was always taught to lead by example. If the Pareto Principle holds true, then just 0.8% of the populace doing the right thing can influence 51.2% of the rest. Leading by example, and doing the right thing can have a profound impact on the rest of the world.

The generational cycle of history – every 80 years, we face a turning point. Most humans only trust what they can experience directly or what we have heard from our parents or grandparents. The result of this is that the lessons of our great grandparents are lost on our current generation. Oral tradition is more reliable here because history is written by the winners, and at this point in time, the Plutocracy is winning. If you look back throughout our nation’s short history, you can see this generational cycle at work. The American Revolution 1781, add 80 years and you get the Civil War in 1861. Add another 80 years and you get WWII, 1941. If this pattern holds true, we should be looking at another major political, economic, and social shift around the year 2021.

What follows is my own interpretation and elaboration on the generational theory put forth in Survival +. The problem with the 2021 timestamp is, in recent years we have moved away from respect for the elderly. Where cultures throughout history have revered their elders, we as a society now look to ship them off to the prison of a nursing home at the first possible moment so we can take their belongings and move on with our own petty lives. Because of this, the 80 year waves that have worked throughout our nation’s history will begin to shorten. The 2021 figure quoted above is not correct. I believe we are in the first year or two of this major shift right now, and if history and current events have shown us anything, it is that major crisis is a perfect time to make major alterations in society. “Never let a crisis go to waste.”

Sure, there have been other times in recent history where major alterations or shifts in society have happened, 1913 to name just one. But I see those as primers for an even greater shift in the near future. 1913, the Woodrow Wilson presidency, WWI, was a primer for the policies of the FDR presidency, and WWII. To go even further with this, much of the financial woes we are having today are due to the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act. 1913 was the year the Federal Reserve was formed, and 80 years later Bill Clinton took office in 1993. This act was repealed in 1999 by a Republican Congress and at the very end of the Clinton presidency. Sure, that is a six year stretch, but it comes close. If the generational cycle theory holds true, we may have overlapping 80 year cycles that work in concert against us. If you would like to learn more about the 80 year generational cycle, The Fourth Turning, by William Strauss and Neil Howe is a book on this exact topic.

Check back soon for Part IV

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